National Development and Reform Commission: Summary of the Situation of Cotton Market in 2010

The second part of the speech given by Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, at the national cotton television conference on the work of the year was the situation and main contents of the cotton work in 2010. The basic situation of the cotton market in 2010 has the following basic judgments: (A) is expected to reduce cotton production over the previous year. According to a recent survey conducted by the agricultural sector, it is estimated that the planting area of ​​cotton in this year will be about 74 million mu, unchanged from the same period of last year. In the first half of this year, the prevailing cold weather prevailed in the main cotton producing areas. The cotton growth was sluggish and the overall growth was worse than usual. In recent days, there have been disastrous weather in some areas, which have some impact on cotton growth. A large number of new cotton market to mid-October, delayed 10-20 days than usual. If the post-normal climate, the total output is expected to be slightly less than the previous year. (B) cotton demand continues to grow. As the global economy is on the rise, it is expected that China's textile exports will continue to grow in 2010, with the domestic textile demand soaring. However, textile production and export growth may slow down due to factors such as rising labor costs and RMB appreciation . Overall, the demand for cotton in the new year will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down slightly. The domestic cotton production and demand gap is slightly larger than the previous year. (C) through the efforts to achieve the total balance of domestic cotton supply and demand. Although there is a big gap in domestic cotton production and demand, there is some pressure to guarantee cotton supply. However, it is conditional to maintain the balance of domestic cotton supply and demand by making effective use of international market resources and making reserve adjustments. According to the latest forecast from the International Cotton Consultative Committee (ICAC), the major cotton producing countries such as the United States, India and Brazil increased their output substantially in 2010, with the output of cotton reaching 25.11 million tons, an increase of 3.36 million tons over the previous year; the consumption was 25.07 million tons, An increase of 470,000 tons; 8.46 million tons for export resources, an increase of 750,000 tons over the previous year. In the international cotton market, the basic balance of production and demand in the current year, supply and demand conditions have improved over the previous year, through appropriate increase in imports to meet domestic textile needs.In recent years, China's cotton imports gradually diversified sources, individual countries climate change or export policy adjustments to me The overall import of cotton has little effect. In addition, the state reserves also maintain a certain level of inventory, which can be put into operation timely when the market needs it. On the Other hand, we should also make a full assessment of the difficulties in maintaining the smooth operation of the domestic cotton market in the new year. Since the beginning of 2010 international cotton stocks fell more (9.08 million tons, 2.81 million tons less than the previous year), although the supply and demand conditions have improved over the previous year, but still in a state of tension; the domestic cotton from a large number of listed for some time , The weather is uncertain in the future, these are easily lead to market speculation speculation and abnormal price fluctuations. In mid-September, cotton prices in the international market rose by 30% over the end of July and cotton prices in the domestic market rose by 12%, both of which were close to historic highs. Affected by factors such as the increase of cotton planting cost (mainly labor cost), the expansion of production and demand gap and the rise of grain and other agricultural products, the cotton price in the domestic market in the new year is more reasonable than in the previous year. However, the cotton price is too short in the near term Excessive rise, contains a greater market risk. First, the rise from the fundamentals of supply and demand is not sustainable. The current market fluctuations in cotton prices, speculation and market speculation have a greater relationship. Second, digestive difficulties downstream. This year l-8 month textile sector raw materials, labor costs rose sharply, while the price of clothing class fell year on year, too high cotton prices unsustainable. Third, chemical fiber will replace part of the cotton demand. Too high cotton prices will encourage more use of chemical fiber textile raw materials, thereby reducing the demand for cotton, curb cotton prices. The year 2003 witnessed a plunge in cotton prices and a sharp fall in the healthy development of the cotton and textile industries. Such lessons should be learned. There are many uncertainties in the cotton market in 2010, with the situation in cotton being complicated and difficult. Development and Reform Commission said that it is necessary to focus on ensuring the basic balance between cotton supply and demand and promote the stable development of cotton production, to protect the interests of cotton farmers to protect cotton needs, stabilize the market cotton prices, regulate the circulation order, prevent operational risks and deepen the quality inspection as the new year cotton The main task of work to grasp. Specific to do the following five tasks: (A) do a good job of safeguarding the market supply. First, make good use of cotton resources in the international market. Relevant departments will study the total volume of cotton imports in 2011 and issue import quotas on time. Relevant departments and trade associations all over the country should guide enterprises in various ways to improve their cotton international trade operation level and grasp the timing of cotton import. The second is to do a good job cotton reserve regulation plan. Such as the emergence of market resources, excessive excessive cotton prices, the state will promptly put in reserve supply. Such as a large number of parts of New Muku after the listing of some areas (such as Xinjiang) there is a stage of oversupply, cotton prices fell more, the timely launch of state purchasing and storage. Third, coordinate the good Xinjiang cotton transportation. This year, the construction of the South Xinjiang Railway double-track project may bring some difficulties to cotton transportation in Xinjiang. Railway departments should plan ahead of schedule and rationally dispatch cotton to Xinjiang to meet their sales and relocation needs. Relevant departments of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region government should do a good job coordinating and coordinating work with Xinjiang's MOCVD. Agricultural Development Bank to strengthen supervision, and actively cooperate to do a good job in Xinjiang's loan transfer of cotton business. Fourth, give full play to the role of large-scale circulation backbone enterprises. The cotton-producing area government should, in light of local conditions, incorporate some powerful large-scale cotton enterprises into the regulatory system and give play to the positive role of key enterprises in regulating and stabilizing the market under the guidance of the state. (B) effectively grasp the purchase and sale of new cotton and risk prevention and control work. This year, farmers have higher expectation on the purchase price of new cotton. Cotton area government should step up publicity to enhance the risk awareness of all parties involved in cotton, cotton farmers to overcome the psychology of reluctant sellers, timely picking and sale of new cotton; guide cotton business reasonable to determine the purchase price, fast processing after the acquisition of sales, to avoid blind Shouting price and hoarding reluctant sellers. Agricultural Development Bank should further play the role of a policy bank, formulate credit policies rationally, continue to support cotton acquisitions under the precondition of effectively preventing credit risks, and strengthen fund supervision and urge enterprises to speed up sales. The people's governments at all levels should conscientiously formulate plans for the acquisition of capital and actively coordinate the financial institutions concerned to provide financial services for the acquisition of new cotton. Cotton Association and Cotton Textile Industry Association to strengthen information services and business guidance, and guide enterprises to improve their management level, and enhance their ability to withstand market risk. Relevant departments should vigorously publicize the state's policy guidance and measures for ensuring the supply of cotton and stabilizing the market, and timely releasing information on cotton supply, demand and supply and stabilizing market expectations. Local authorities should pay close attention to the cotton market price dynamics, strengthen the market inspection, abnormal price fluctuations in the timely reporting to the local government. For the spread of price information, malicious hoarding, driving up the price behavior, the relevant departments should be severely punished. (C) strengthen the cotton market and quality control. In the more prominent contradictions between production and demand, the cotton market and quality supervision are more difficult. Cotton-producing provinces provincial development and Reform Commission, industrial and commercial, quality supervision and other cotton processing qualification organs should continue to conscientiously implement the "cotton processing qualification and market management Interim Measures," strict market access, control on the new production line, Prevent blind expansion of processing capacity. The industrial and commercial departments should strictly ban illegal processing equipment such as small ginning machines and soil balers according to law, severely crack down on business operations without a license, and severely punish acts such as hoarding speculation and disturbing the normal operating order in the market. The cotton quality supervision agency shall strengthen the supervision and inspection of cotton quality according to law, strengthen the supervision and administration of the quality of acquisition and processing links, and crack down on illegal quality such as doping of cotton. The cotton wool district government should continue to implement the "Provisional Regulations on Avoiding Mixed Heterosexual Fibers in the Process of Picking, Selling and Processing of Cotton," do a good job in excluding heterosexual fibers, step up inspection and supervision, effectively reduce the content of the opposite sex fibers, Cultivate domestic cotton brand. Relevant departments of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region government should cooperate with the railway departments to prevent and control cotton transportation by rail. Cotton Association to play a coordinating role, with the relevant departments do market management and quality supervision. (D) support the development of cotton production. From the development trend, the contradiction between the cotton demand growth and the domestic supply shortage will exist for a long time. If the cotton supply is excessively dependent on the international market, it will not be conducive to the healthy development of the cotton spinning industry. Although the price of cotton has risen more in recent years, it is still relatively low compared with the price of grain, and the cost of planting cotton is high, the market risk is high, and the task of stabilizing cotton production is arduous. In this regard, we must have a clear understanding and take effective measures to prevent the decline of cotton production in a steadily expanding area of ​​cotton planting in the advantageous areas, focusing on improving cotton yields and quality. We should continue to improve cotton production conditions and increase efforts to support the construction of high-quality cotton production bases in the Yellow River Basin, the Yangtze River Basin and Xinjiang. The agricultural sector in cotton-producing areas should speed up the selection, demonstration and popularization of fine new varieties of cotton and the pace of upgrading and replacement of cotton varieties, expand the planting scale of high-quality cotton and improve the quality of cotton. (E) promote the textile industry to change the mode of development. Raw materials, rising labor costs, excess textile capacity and increasingly fierce international competition, urged the textile industry to change its mode of development based on the expansion of the past. Local government industrial departments and trade associations should guide textile enterprises to speed up structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, step up efforts to eliminate backward production capacity and effectively prevent large-scale blind expansion of general production capacity. It is necessary to speed up the pace of technological improvement and transformation, support the research and development of new technologies, new materials and new equipment in the textile industry, raise the technological content of products and increase the proportion of high value-added textiles. Textile Association to step up publicity, and guide enterprises to increase the proportion of chemical fiber to reduce the consumption of cotton yarn low yarn production to encourage the diversification of new fiber development and use, improve resource utilization efficiency. Relevant departments, trade organizations and enterprises should make concerted efforts to accelerate the building of their own brands, improve the quality and competitiveness of China's textile and apparel, and gradually realize the transformation from a major textile powerhouse in the textile industry.

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